Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones

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dc.citation.articleNumber3319en_US
dc.citation.journalTitleNature Communicationsen_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber11en_US
dc.contributor.authorHassanzadeh, Pedramen_US
dc.contributor.authorLee, Chia-Yingen_US
dc.contributor.authorNabizadeh, Ebrahimen_US
dc.contributor.authorCamargo, Suzana J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMa, Dingen_US
dc.contributor.authorYeung, Laurence Y.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-17T15:11:45Zen_US
dc.date.available2020-11-17T15:11:45Zen_US
dc.date.issued2020en_US
dc.description.abstractThe movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but―consistently across models―stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21st century.en_US
dc.identifier.citationHassanzadeh, Pedram, Lee, Chia-Ying, Nabizadeh, Ebrahim, et al.. "Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones." <i>Nature Communications,</i> 11, (2020) Springer Nature: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7.en_US
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/109563en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen_US
dc.rightsThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.titleEffects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclonesen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.type.dcmiTexten_US
dc.type.publicationpublisher versionen_US
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