Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones

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dc.citation.articleNumber3319
dc.citation.journalTitleNature Communications
dc.citation.volumeNumber11
dc.contributor.authorHassanzadeh, Pedram
dc.contributor.authorLee, Chia-Ying
dc.contributor.authorNabizadeh, Ebrahim
dc.contributor.authorCamargo, Suzana J.
dc.contributor.authorMa, Ding
dc.contributor.authorYeung, Laurence Y.
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-17T15:11:45Z
dc.date.available2020-11-17T15:11:45Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractThe movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but―consistently across models―stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21st century.
dc.identifier.citationHassanzadeh, Pedram, Lee, Chia-Ying, Nabizadeh, Ebrahim, et al.. "Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones." <i>Nature Communications,</i> 11, (2020) Springer Nature: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7.
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/109563
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSpringer Nature
dc.rightsThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleEffects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.dcmiText
dc.type.publicationpublisher version
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