Browsing by Author "Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates"
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Item Conference Report: Energy and Politics in the Persian Gulf(2018) Baasiri, Rudeina Amine; Krane, Jim; Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyAs Persian Gulf countriesﾠconsider a future in which hydrocarbons play a smaller role in their economies, much of the Arab world remains embroiled in conflict and political uncertainty. This report recaps a conference on the impact of these issues on both Houston and U.S. energy and security interests.Item Economic Inclusion in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States: Findings From an Expert Survey(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2018) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Gulf Airlines and the Changing Map of Global Aviation(2015) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Israel and the Arab Gulf States: Drivers and Directions of Change(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2016) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyThe visit of a “delegation” of Saudi academic and business figures to Israel on July 22, 2016, has shone a spotlight onto the nature of the discreet relationships between the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Israel.[1] The July visit was unprecedented in its visibility and may in part have constituted a “trial balloon” to indicate to officials in Riyadh how such a visit would be received within Saudi Arabia. While it remains unlikely that direct diplomatic relations will be established between Israel and GCC states in the near future, regional realignments are expanding the scope for unofficial contact and tangible cooperation in numerous policy spheres. A set of common interests (if not values) has emerged in the turbulent aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings, the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement, and, framing both, the sense of bewilderment felt equally in Jerusalem and in GCC capitals at US policies in the Middle East under the Obama administration.Item Israel and the Arab Gulf States: Drivers and Directions of Change(2016) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyThe visit of a “delegation” of Saudi academic and business figures to Israel on July 22, 2016, has shone a spotlight onto the nature of the discreet relationships between the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Israel.[1] The July visit was unprecedented in its visibility and may in part have constituted a “trial balloon” to indicate to officials in Riyadh how such a visit would be received within Saudi Arabia. While it remains unlikely that direct diplomatic relations will be established between Israel and GCC states in the near future, regional realignments are expanding the scope for unofficial contact and tangible cooperation in numerous policy spheres. A set of common interests (if not values) has emerged in the turbulent aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings, the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement, and, framing both, the sense of bewilderment felt equally in Jerusalem and in GCC capitals at US policies in the Middle East under the Obama administration.Item Key Challenges for U.S. Policy in the Middle East(2022) Norman, Kelsey; Tabaar, Mohammad Ayatollahi; Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; Yildirim, A.Kadir; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyOver the past decade, the Middle East has seen major transformations, including popular uprisings, civil and armed conflict, and humanitarian emergencies. The region also faces a number of other important challenges, ranging from effective governance to religious pluralism to geopolitical rivalries. This policy brief is the result of a one-day conference where experts examined the most pressing issues in the region for U.S. policymakers. It provides analyses and policy recommendations regarding the evolution of Islamist politics, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, security in the Persian Gulf, and displacement in the Middle East.Item Key Middle East Policy Issues for the Biden Administration(2021) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; Tabaar, Mohammad Ayatollahi; Yildirim, A.Kadir; Norman, Kelsey; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Mohammed bin Salman and Religious Authority and Reform in Saudi Arabia(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2019) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; Sheline, Annelle R.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Rebalancing Regional Security in the Persian Gulf(2020) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem The Gulf States and the Middle East Peace Process: Considerations, Stakes, and Options(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2020) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem The Gulf States and the Rebalancing of Regional and Global Power(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2014) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem The Political Economy of Arab Gulf States(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2015) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem The Politics of Economic Reform in Arab Gulf States(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2016) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicySaudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud laid out an expansive long-term plan, labeled the “Saudi Vision 2030,” on April 25, 2016, intended to transform the Saudi economy and accelerate the transition toward a post-oil era. “Saudi Vision 2030” built upon a series of lengthy and in-depth interviews Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave to The Economist and Bloomberg that revealed plans to partially privatize Saudi Aramco and transform it into a global industrial conglomerate that would act both as the spearhead and focal point for the reforms. The dizzying pace and ambition of “Saudi Vision 2030” and associated developments—such as the restructuring of key government ministries and the appointment of former Saudi Aramco CEO Khalid al-Falih to head a new “super-ministry” of energy, industry, and mineral resources—have been uncharacteristic for a kingdom more used to periods of incremental change unfolding slowly over time. This policy report goes beyond the headline initiatives of “Saudi Vision 2030” and the various measures unveiled in other Gulf States in response to the fall in oil prices to examine whether the attempts to shift toward genuinely post-oil economies are likely to succeed or not. It has two main parts each divided into multiple sections. Part I focuses on the political economy implications of the decline in oil prices and government revenues for the Gulf States, while Part II suggests incentives and recommendations for sustainable reform that can translate policymakers’ aspirations into successful policy implementation. Part I commences with an overview of the economic volatility that has buffeted the Gulf States since oil prices began to fall in July 2014 and assesses the implications for the so-called “ruling bargains” based on the redistribution of oil wealth from state to society. The final two sections analyze two of the initial policy responses to fiscal pressures—the issuing of debt and the scaling back of energy subsidies—and argue that while these policies have enabled governments to put off more politically sensitive measures, they are by themselves unlikely to resolve the underlying challenges facing Gulf economies. Part II of this paper starts by placing “Saudi Vision 2030” in the context of the poor record of achievement of other long-term comprehensive economic “visions” unveiled elsewhere in the Gulf over the past decade. For the Saudi plan to succeed where most others fell short it is imperative that it be underpinned by a set of plans that spell out the detail and the mechanics of the policy changes, but the National Transformation Plan intended to accompany Vision 2030 has been repeatedly delayed. The following sections analyze in depth the need for policy planning as well as the importance of securing strong local buy-in and dislodging vested economic and political interests that otherwise can obstruct and even defeat policy reforms. The paper ends with concluding observations that underscore the point that while low oil prices have created a window of opportunity for “visionary” leaders to think outside of the box and push through reforms, this window is not open-ended and must produce results sooner rather than later.Item Workshop Report: Economic Inclusion and Sustainable Growth: New Perspectives from the Gulf(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2018) Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy