Balancing economic and epidemiological interventions in the early stages of pathogen emergence

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dc.citation.articleNumbereade6169en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber21en_US
dc.citation.journalTitleScience Advancesen_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber9en_US
dc.contributor.authorDobson, Andyen_US
dc.contributor.authorRicci, Cristianoen_US
dc.contributor.authorBoucekkine, Raoufen_US
dc.contributor.authorGozzi, Faustoen_US
dc.contributor.authorFabbri, Giorgioen_US
dc.contributor.authorLoch-Temzelides, Teden_US
dc.contributor.authorPascual, Mercedesen_US
dc.contributor.orgBaker Institute for Public Policyen_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-21T16:14:09Zen_US
dc.date.available2023-07-21T16:14:09Zen_US
dc.date.issued2023en_US
dc.description.abstractThe global pandemic of COVID-19 has underlined the need for more coordinated responses to emergent pathogens. These responses need to balance epidemic control in ways that concomitantly minimize hospitalizations and economic damages. We develop a hybrid economic-epidemiological modeling framework that allows us to examine the interaction between economic and health impacts over the first period of pathogen emergence when lockdown, testing, and isolation are the only means of containing the epidemic. This operational mathematical setting allows us to determine the optimal policy interventions under a variety of scenarios that might prevail in the first period of a large-scale epidemic outbreak. Combining testing with isolation emerges as a more effective policy than lockdowns, substantially reducing deaths and the number of infected hosts, at lower economic cost. If a lockdown is put in place early in the course of the epidemic, it always dominates the “laissez-faire” policy of doing nothing.en_US
dc.identifier.citationDobson, Andy, Ricci, Cristiano, Boucekkine, Raouf, et al.. "Balancing economic and epidemiological interventions in the early stages of pathogen emergence." <i>Science Advances,</i> 9, no. 21 (2023) AAAS: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ade6169.en_US
dc.identifier.digitalsciadv-ade6169en_US
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ade6169en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/115021en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherAAASen_US
dc.rightsExcept where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC) license.  Permission to reuse, publish, or reproduce the work beyond the terms of the license or beyond the bounds of Fair Use or other exemptions to copyright law must be obtained from the copyright holder.en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/en_US
dc.titleBalancing economic and epidemiological interventions in the early stages of pathogen emergenceen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.type.dcmiTexten_US
dc.type.publicationpublisher versionen_US
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