Multi-Patch Epidemic Models with General Exposed and Infectious Periods

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EDP Sciences

We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that depends on the patch as well as “from distance” from all the other patches. The migration processes among the patches in either of the four states are assumed to be Markovian, and independent of the exposed and infectious periods. These periods have general distributions, and are not affected by the possible migrations of the individuals. The infection “from distance” aspect introduces a new formulation of the infection process, which, together with the migration processes, brings technical challenges in proving the functional limit theorems. Generalizing the methods in Pang and Pardoux [Ann. Appl. Probab. 32 (2022) 1615–1665], we establish a functional law of large number (FLLN) and a function central limit theorem (FCLT) for the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered processes. In the FLLN, the limit is determined by a set of Volterra integral equations. In the special case of deterministic exposed and infectious periods, the limit becomes a system of ODEs with delays. In the FCLT, the limit is given by a set of stochastic Volterra integral equations driven by a sum of independent Brownian motions and continuous Gaussian processes with an explicit covariance structure.

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Pang, Guodong and Pardoux, Étienne. "Multi-Patch Epidemic Models with General Exposed and Infectious Periods." ESAIM: Probability and Statistics, 27, (2023) EDP Sciences: 345-401.

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