Accounting for Uncertainties in the Safety Assessment of Concrete Gravity Dams: A Probabilistic Approach with Sample Optimization

Simple item page
dc.citation.articleNumber855
dc.citation.issueNumber6
dc.citation.journalTitleWater
dc.citation.volumeNumber13
dc.contributor.authorSegura, Rocio L.
dc.contributor.authorMiquel, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorPaultre, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorPadgett, Jamie E.
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-21T15:46:31Z
dc.date.available2021-04-21T15:46:31Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractImportant advances have been made in the methodologies for assessing the safety of dams, resulting in the review and modification of design guidelines. Many existing dams fail to meet these revised criteria, and structural rehabilitation to achieve the updated standards may be costly and difficult. To this end, probabilistic methods have emerged as a promising alternative and constitute the basis of more adequate procedures of design and assessment. However, such methods, in addition to being computationally expensive, can produce very different solutions, depending on the input parameters, which can greatly influence the final results. Addressing the existing challenges of these procedures to analyze the stability of concrete dams, this study proposes a probabilistic-based methodology for assessing the safety of dams under usual, unusual, and extreme loading conditions. The proposed procedure allows the analysis to be updated while avoiding unnecessary simulation runs by classifying the load cases according to the annual probability of exceedance and by using an efficient progressive sampling strategy. In addition, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the parameters most affecting the dam stability, and the parameter ranges that meet the safety guidelines are formulated. It is observed that the proposed methodology is more robust, more computationally efficient, and more easily interpretable than conventional methods.
dc.identifier.citationSegura, Rocio L., Miquel, Benjamin, Paultre, Patrick, et al.. "Accounting for Uncertainties in the Safety Assessment of Concrete Gravity Dams: A Probabilistic Approach with Sample Optimization." <i>Water,</i> 13, no. 6 (2021) MDPI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060855.
dc.identifier.digitalwater-13-00855-v2
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/w13060855
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/110312
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.rightsThis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleAccounting for Uncertainties in the Safety Assessment of Concrete Gravity Dams: A Probabilistic Approach with Sample Optimization
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.dcmiText
dc.type.publicationpublisher version
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
water-13-00855-v2.pdf
Size:
10.86 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
Collections
Faculty Publications
Civil and Environmental Engineering Publications