Accounting for Uncertainties in the Safety Assessment of Concrete Gravity Dams: A Probabilistic Approach with Sample Optimization

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dc.citation.articleNumber855en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber6en_US
dc.citation.journalTitleWateren_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber13en_US
dc.contributor.authorSegura, Rocio L.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMiquel, Benjaminen_US
dc.contributor.authorPaultre, Patricken_US
dc.contributor.authorPadgett, Jamie E.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-21T15:46:31Zen_US
dc.date.available2021-04-21T15:46:31Zen_US
dc.date.issued2021en_US
dc.description.abstractImportant advances have been made in the methodologies for assessing the safety of dams, resulting in the review and modification of design guidelines. Many existing dams fail to meet these revised criteria, and structural rehabilitation to achieve the updated standards may be costly and difficult. To this end, probabilistic methods have emerged as a promising alternative and constitute the basis of more adequate procedures of design and assessment. However, such methods, in addition to being computationally expensive, can produce very different solutions, depending on the input parameters, which can greatly influence the final results. Addressing the existing challenges of these procedures to analyze the stability of concrete dams, this study proposes a probabilistic-based methodology for assessing the safety of dams under usual, unusual, and extreme loading conditions. The proposed procedure allows the analysis to be updated while avoiding unnecessary simulation runs by classifying the load cases according to the annual probability of exceedance and by using an efficient progressive sampling strategy. In addition, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the parameters most affecting the dam stability, and the parameter ranges that meet the safety guidelines are formulated. It is observed that the proposed methodology is more robust, more computationally efficient, and more easily interpretable than conventional methods.en_US
dc.identifier.citationSegura, Rocio L., Miquel, Benjamin, Paultre, Patrick, et al.. "Accounting for Uncertainties in the Safety Assessment of Concrete Gravity Dams: A Probabilistic Approach with Sample Optimization." <i>Water,</i> 13, no. 6 (2021) MDPI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060855.en_US
dc.identifier.digitalwater-13-00855-v2en_US
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/w13060855en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/110312en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherMDPIen_US
dc.rightsThis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly citeden_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.titleAccounting for Uncertainties in the Safety Assessment of Concrete Gravity Dams: A Probabilistic Approach with Sample Optimizationen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.type.dcmiTexten_US
dc.type.publicationpublisher versionen_US
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