School of Social Sciences

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A comment on McCaleb's “The size principle and collective-consumption payoffs to political coalitions”
(Springer, 1975) Stoll, Richard J.
Let the Researcher Beware: The Use of the Richardson Equations to Estimate the Parameters of a Dyadic Arms Acquisition Process
(Midwest Political Science Association, 1982-02) Stoll, Richard J.
Most attempts to untangle the factors accounting for arms acquisition by nation states rely implicitly or explicitly on the work of Lewis Richardson. However, very few findings from these investigations are durable;one study finds a particular nation state dyad to be involved in an arms race,while the next concludes that this same pair of nations is driven by factors internal to each. The question asked in this paper is: how likely is the true model of a dyadic arms acquisition process to emerge when the Richardson equations are used? This question is investigated by constructing two data sets representing the military capability of a pair of nations-one when an arms race is present and the other when each nation's acquisition of capability is driven by internal factors. These data are then used to estimate the Richardson equations. The conclusion is that in many situations, estimation of the Richardson equations may not uncover the true parameters of the process and may well lead to different conclusions about the same dyadic arms acquisition process.
Major Power Interstate Conflict in the Post-World War II Era: An Increase, a Decrease, or No Change?
(University of Utah, 1982-12) Stoll, Richard J.
The second World War is often regarded as a watershed in world history. Observers have pointed to a number of changes in the global system that occurred after its conclusion: the emergence of bipolar system structure, along with new contenders for international leadership; the invention (and subsequent proliferation)of weapons of extreme power; and the explosion of new nation-states has created a truly global system. But have these changes been accompanied by changes in behavior between nation states? This paper will investigate one aspect of interstate behavior--military conflict involving the major powers--and ascertain whether the time period 1946-1976 was marked by a sharp change in the amount of this conflict, as compared to the period 1816-1945.
Nations at the Brink: A Computer Simulation of Governmental Behavior During Serious Disputes
(Sage, 1983-06) Stoll, Richard J.
During the period 1816-1975, major powers engaged in approximately 225 serious disputes (situations in which military force was threatened or actually used), but only about 12% of these disputes ended in war (Singer, 1979). What model can explain the governmental decision-making that goes on during disputes and account for the rather small percentage of these situations that end in large scale violence? The purpose of this article is to build and test a computer simulation of basic calculations made by governments during serious disputes, and to predict the individual threats and uses of force that they will undertake, including the ultimate act of going to war. To test the simulation, the actions of both Russia and Japan during a of disputes from 1~~~ to 1904 will be predicted. I begin by discussing the concept and operationalizations of the serious dispute and then turn to a description of the simulation. Finally, the disputes themselves, the modelﾒs predictions, and the fit of these predictions to the observed actions of the Russian and Japanese governments will be considered.
Bloc Concentration and the Balance of Power: The European Major Powers, 1824-1914
(Sage, 1984-03) Stoll, Richard J.
This article argues that a better trace of the operation of a balance of power system can be obtained if two dimensions, alliances and capabilities, are combined into a single measure of bloc concentration. After reviewing the basic features of a balance of power system to show why this is the case, such an index is constructed. Several patterns of bloc concentration consistent with the operation of a balance of power system are derived and examined, using data for the European major powers from 1824 through 1914, and for all the major powers from 1919 through 1965. The findings are consistent with the existence of a balance of power system in the earlier era and with a form of balancing behavior in the post-World War I era.
The Guns of November: Presidential Reelections and the Use of Force, 1947-1982
(Sage, 1984-06) Stoll, Richard J.
A number of recent studies have investigated relationships between the presidential election cycle and the implementation of various policies. This article falls in this tradition, and asks whether a link exists between the reelection efforts of presidents, and the visible use of military force by the United States. After outlining why, and under what conditions, such a connection can be expected, a multivariate statistical model is tested for the time period 1947-1982. Despite the presence of several control variables, the results indicate that there is a connection, with fewer visible uses of force associated with presidential reelections in peacetime, and a slight increase in uses of force associated with presidential reelections during wartime.
The Fiscal Impact of the U. S. Military Assistance Program, 1967-1976
(University of Utah, 1985-03) Stein, Robert M.; Ishimatsu, Mark; Stoll, Richard J.
The study of U.S. arms transfers and their impact on the fiscal decisions of aid recipients has been the subject of various interpretations and competing explanations. Absent in this literature has been a systematic testing of propositions derived from a general theory of aid impacts. A larger and somewhat related body of research has examined the political (Chaudhuri 1972; Hughes 1967; Gutteridge 1967) and general economic effects of domestic military spending (Deger and Smith 1983; Smith 1977, 1980; Benoit 1978; Kennedy 1974; Whynes 1979). These studies, however, have not examined the fiscal impact of foreign military assistance. To date only a few researchers have studied this issue in any systematic fashion (McGuire 1979, 1982; Wolf 1971). In this study we seek to fill this gap by applying grant economics theory (Pigou 1932; Oates 1972) to study the fiscal impact of U.S. military arms transfers on foreign nations. Drawing on the domestic aid literature (Oates 1972; Gramlich 1972), we identify a set of propositions concerning the expenditure decisions of domestic aid recipients, and test these propositions against the fiscal behavior of Military Assistance Program (MAP) recipients between 1967-1976. In addition to the substantive import of this question and its bearing on the implementation of U.S. foreign policy, this research provides a unique opportunity to test the applicability of domestic aid theory to the study of foreign aid policy.
Negotiating Strategic Arms Control, 1969-1979 : Modeling the Bargaining Process
(Sage, 1986-06) Stoll, Richard J.; McAndrew, William
Using data collected by Jensen (1984), we investigate whether cooperative and inverse reciprocity can successfully predict U.S. and Soviet actions during the 23 rounds of strategic arms negotiation during the 1969-1979 period. Each type of reciprocity gives rise to three models of bargaining behavior, which we implement as computer routines. In our analysis, we find that the cooperative reciprocity models fit more often than inverse reciprocity models
System and State in International Politics: A Computer Simulation of Balancing in an Anarchic World
(International Studies Association, 1987) Stoll, Richard J.
The relationship between state behavior and system behavior has occupied the attention of scholars and practitioners of international politics for hundreds of years. The predominant assumption of state behavior is that states act in their self-interest; this is their best guarantee of survival in an anarchic world. But most observers feel that system equilibrium is not possible in a world of such states; some additional element is necessary to preserve the main characteristics of the system. In this paper, a computer simulation is used to investigate (a) whether in a world of self-interested states, system-level behavior that acts to preserve or restore equilibrium will emerge, and (b) whether this is sufficient to preserve most of the actors in the system.
The Sound of the Guns: Is There a Congressional Rally Effect after U.S. Military Action?
(Sage, 1987-04) Stoll, Richard J.
This article examines whether, during the 1946-1982 time period, presidents achieve more success in Congress on important international issues in the wake of dramatic military operations. The analysis shows that, at least for a short period of time after visible uses of U.S. military force, a president will generally have a greater chance of congressional support on key international issues.
The Russians Are Coming! A Computer Simulation
(Sage, 1990) Stoll, Richard J.
Aside from defending the homeland, no defense commitment in the post-World War II era has been more important to U.S. decision makers than the defense of Western Europe against a Soviet/Warsaw Pact attack. But from the very beginning of the NATO alliance in 1949, the Alliance's ability to stop a Pact invasion without resort to nuclear weapons has been in doubt. Concern about NATO's conventional defense has increased as U.S. strategic nuclear superiority has declined and was brought to the forefront during the debate on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. But before we can come to grips with NATO's problems, we need the tools to evaluate the deficiencies and strengths of the Alliance in war against the Pact. This paper presents one such tool, a simple computer model of a blitzkrieg, and uses it to examine scenarios of a war in Europe.
Adaptation, State Survival and System Endurance: A Simulation Study
(Sage, 1990) Cusack, Thomas R.; Stoll, Richard J.
This paper reports on a study using the EARTH (Exploring Alternative Realpolitik Theses) Simulation Model. The model is an abstract representation of an anarchic multistate system wherein states employ Realists' principles in guiding their choices on questions dealing with war and peace. The present study examines the systemic and state level consequences that arise in the presence or absence of the ability of states to adapt or change the fundamental decision rules that they employ.
Steaming in the Dark? : Rules, Rivals, and the British Navy, 1860-1913
(Sage, 1992-06) Stoll, Richard J.
The empirical literature on arms races has often failed to find strong evidence of the existence of arms races among "obvious" dyads. In this article it is argued that if we assume that decision makers use simple rules and concentrate on the weapons stock of their rivals, we can produce highly accurate models. These premises arc tested by examining the size of the British navy from 1860 to 1913. The results offer support for this line of argument.
Collective Security and State Survival in the Interstate System
(Wiley, 1994-03) Cusack, Thomas R.; Stoll, Richard J.
For hundreds of years realists have debated idealists about the nature of the interstate system and the most effective means to promote the endurance of the system and the survival of individual states. This paper uses a computer simulation called EARTH (Exploring Alternative Realpolitik Theses) to explore the viability of collective security in a realist world. The results of our experiments indicate that the practice of collective security promotes the endurance of the entire system. Our results also show that states that practice collective security principles are more likely to survive in a realist world than states that operate according to realist principles
Cycles Within the System: Metropolitanization and Internal Migration in the U.S., 1965-1990
(1995) Elliott, James R.; Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
This paper uses a typology of local metropolitan development to examine population redistribution trends in the U.S. over the past three decades. Theories of systemic maturation and urban life-cycles are discussed. Subsequent analysis of population and inter-county migration data reveals that Deconcentration has become an increasingly common subprocess of local metropolitanization but that this subprocess cannot be adequately explained by a “life-cycle” model of metropolitan development. More importantly, results indicate that metro-based migration varies significantly with local patterns of metropolitanization. The nature of this variation implies that declining metro areas tend to redistribute migrants to relatively distant, nonmetro territory in a manner consistent with extended processes of decentralization.
The Networked Classroom
(1996) Lane, David M.; Atlas, Robert S.
The neural correlates of verb and noun processing A PET study
(1999) Perani, Daniela; Cappa, Stefano F.; Schnur, Tatiana T.; Tettamanti, Marco; Collina, Simona; Rosa, Mario Miguel; Fazio, Ferruccio; CNR; Oxford University Press
The hypothesis that categorical information, distinguishing among word classes, such as nouns, verbs, etc., is an organizational principle of lexical knowledge in the brain, is supported by the observation of aphasic subjects who are selectively impaired in the processing of nouns and verbs. The study lesion location in these patients has suggested that the left temporal lobe plays a crucial role in processing nouns, while the left frontal lobe is necessary for verbs. To delineate the brain areas involved in the processing of different word classes, we used PET to measure regional cerebral activity during tasks requiring reading of concrete and abstract nouns and verbs for lexical decision. These tasks activated an extensive network of brain areas, mostly in the left frontal and temporal cortex, which represents the neural correlate of single word processing. Some left hemispheric areas, including the dorsolateral frontal and lateral temporal cortex, were activated only by verbs, while there were no brain areas more active in response to nouns. Furthermore, the comparison of abstract and concrete words indicated that abstract word processing was associated with selective activations (right temporal pole and amygdala, bilateral inferior frontal cortex), while no brain areas were more active in response to concrete words. There were no significant interaction effects between word class and concreteness. Taken together, these findings are compatible with the view that lexical-semantic processing of words is mediated by an extensive, predominantly left hemispheric network of brain structures. Additional brain activations appear to be related to specific semantic content, or, in the case of verbs, may be associated with the automatic access of syntactic information.
Effectiveness of Simulation Training on Transfer of Statistical Concepts
(2000) Lane, David M.; Tang, Zhihua; National Science Foundation, Division of Undergraduate Education; Baywood Publishing Co., Inc
The effectiveness of simulations for teaching statistical concepts was compared to the effectiveness of a textbook. The variable Medium (simulation versus textbook) and Question specificity (Specific versus Nonspecific), were manipulated factorially. Question specificity was defined as follows: Subjects were presented with a scenario in which gumballs were sampled from an urn. Subjects in the “Specific” condition were given a specific question about the outcome of the sampling procedure to consider; subjects in the “Non-specific” condition were asked generally to consider what would happen. A no-treatment control was included. The subjects consisted of 115 college students. The dependent variable was performance on problems requiring subjects to apply what they learned to ill defined everyday problems. Subjects trained by simulation performed significantly better than those trained with a textbook. Subjects in the “Specific” condition performed better than those in the “Non-specific” condition, although the difference did not reach conventional levels of significance. These results support the increasing use of simulation in education and training.
HOW TO KNOW WHEN NOT TO KNOW: Strategic Ignorance When Eliciting for Samoan Migrant Exchanges
(Berghan Books, 2000) Gershon, Ilana
The Arms Acquisition Process : The Effect of Internal and External Constraints on Arms Race Dynamics
(Sage, 2000-10) Bolks, Sean; Stoll, Richard J.
A new approach to address oversights in the traditional arms race literature is presented. It involves five factors that have not been previously applied to arms races. The focus of military capability is not expenditures but weapons counts. The entire set of major powers is modeled as a system. A factor controlling for the level of environmental threat faced by each state is included. Domestic factors are included in the decision-making calculus of the state. It is assumed that states use simple decision rules rather than a complex set of calculations to make their decisions. The authors usc this approach to test a system of equations that model the number of capital ships of the major powers from 1860 to 1986 in different time periods. Results indicate that the overall approach has a good deal of validity.

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