Browsing by Author "Green, Russell A."
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Item Advice for the BRICS Summit: Designing the New Development Bank(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Green, Russell A.; Kalomeris, Elisabeth; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Bargaining with China: Exchange Rate Policy(2016) Green, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Can “Make in India” Make Jobs? The Challenges of Manufacturing Growth and High-Quality Job Creation in IndiaGreen, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyA new “Make in India” campaign to “transform India into a global manufacturing hub” aims to use manufacturing as a vehicle for job growth. Is this strategy realistic? This paper helps answer the question by describing the job growth potential of the Indian economy. Formal-sector manufacturing demonstrates the most potential for job growth under a more supportive policy regime. The paper models future employment paths for India for the next 20 years. Assuming sufficient reforms to generate East Asia-style manufacturing growth, the impact on employment and output is substantial, even if the campaign target of 100 million new manufacturing jobs remains difficult to achieve. The paper then describes a set of reforms sufficient to unleash such a manufacturing growth boom.Item Four Tough Reforms to Revive the Manufacturing Sector in IndiaGreen, Russell A.; McAuley, Thomas; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Gold Standard or Fool’s Gold? Should the U.S. Consider Returning to the Gold Standard?(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2016) Green, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Limits of the Jugaad Growth Model: No Workaround to Good Governance for India(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Green, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyIndian industry has gained fame in management circles for jugaad, or persevering despite limited resources. This skill has proven particularly important in overcoming inadequate public services. However, the economy appears to have reached the limit of using jugaad in the place of good government, suggesting a lower growth trajectory in the absence of a major improvement in political dynamics.Item NAFTA Does Not Matter as Much as You Think (But Renegotiation Matters a Lot)(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy;Baylor College of Medicine, 2017) Green, Russell A.; Payan, Tony; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Structural Change Forecasts for India: How Big of a Bang Can a Big Bang Have?(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Green, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyIndia’s political environment exhibits a new determination to “transform India into a global manufacturing hub,” and in the process raise manufacturing to 25% of GDP and create 100 million new manufacturing jobs. This would entail a structural change comparable to that witnessed by several East Asian countries beginning in the 1960s. The study projects a formal-sector manufacturing boom out 20 years at the sectoral level, assuming India can make the necessary reforms to initiate such a boom. Projection parameters are carefully constructed based on Indian and East Asian historical experience. The projections break out the key growth areas of formal-sector manufacturing and modern services to capture their unique characteristics. The results show large positive gains to aggregate output and employment from initiating an East Asian-style manufacturing boom in India. Reflective of the small size of formal-sector manufacturing employment currently, the government’s specific employment goals appear unattainable in the next 20 years.Item The New BRICS Bank Raises Tough Questions for Its FoundersGreen, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem The Unfavorable Economics of Currency Manipulation Chapters in Trade Agreements(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Green, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyAs Congress resumes work this spring on a bill granting Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to President Obama for completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, many members have sought inclusion of a chapter on currency manipulation. Currency manipulation is a legitimate concern. However, countermeasures require clear, objective identification of currency manipulation. Both the IMF and the US Treasury Department have mandates to identify currency manipulation, yet neither has done so in the past 20 years. If it can be done, why has it not happened more often? This issue brief reviews the difficulties of operationalizing a currency manipulation chapter. It first demonstrates that domestic policies and exchange rate policy can rarely be distinguished. It reviews the official IMF criteria for currency manipulation to highlight the degree of discretionary interpretation necessary for a determination. It argues that the difficulty of identifying currency manipulation suggests serious political obstacles to implementation.Item U.S. Economic Diplomacy: Adopting to Shifts in Global Economic Powers(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Green, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Was NAFTA Good for the United States?(2017) Green, Russell A.; Payan, Tony; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem What Happened to “Japan as Number One”?Yoshimori, Masaaki; Green, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Why Was the Plaza Accord Unique?(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Green, Russell A.; Papell, David H.; Prodan, Ruxandra; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyThis chapter explores what made the Plaza such a unique combination of strong cooperation and effective intervention relative to the rest of the post-Bretton Woods period. We demonstrate that in the first quarter of 1985 the US dollar was more overvalued in real terms, relative to exchange rates implied by real interest differentials, for all G-7 economies except Canada, than at any other time between 1973 and 2005. Further, we use Taylor rules to create a benchmark for consistency of intervention with monetary policy. We show that foreign exchange intervention in 1985 was consistent with the direction of monetary policy prescribed by the deviation of policy rates from the implied Taylor rule rates for the U.S., but only weakly so for Germany and Japan. This reinforces the view that the impact of the Plaza on exchange rates derived primarily from the major policy shift in the U.S.Item Will India's Currency Exchange Work as Hoped?(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Green, Russell A.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy