Eliminating incoherence from subjective estimates of chance

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dc.contributor.advisorVardi, Moshe Y.en_US
dc.creatorTsavachidis, Spiridonen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-06-04T06:28:17Zen_US
dc.date.available2009-06-04T06:28:17Zen_US
dc.date.issued2003en_US
dc.description.abstractHuman expertise is a significant source of information about environments with inherent uncertainty. However, it is well documented that subjective estimates of chance tend to violate the mathematical axioms of probability, that is, they are incoherent. This fact makes the use of such estimates problematic for statistical inference, decision analysis, economic modelling or aggregation of expert opinions. In order for the subjective probability estimates to be used in a correct and meaningful way, they must be reconstructed so that they are coherent. The proposed algorithms for coherent reconstruction are based on heuristic search methods, namely, Genetic Algorithms and Simulated Annealing. These algorithms are combined with efficient data structures that compactly represent probability distributions. The reconstructed estimates are coherent and close to the initial judgments with respect to some distance measure, maintaining the insight of the expert. Empirical studies shown that the coherent approximations are more stochastically accurate than the original subjective estimates.en_US
dc.format.extent59 p.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.identifier.callnoTHESIS COMP.SCI. 2003 TSAVACHIDISen_US
dc.identifier.citationTsavachidis, Spiridon. "Eliminating incoherence from subjective estimates of chance." (2003) Master’s Thesis, Rice University. <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/1911/17629">https://hdl.handle.net/1911/17629</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/17629en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.rightsCopyright is held by the author, unless otherwise indicated. Permission to reuse, publish, or reproduce the work beyond the bounds of fair use or other exemptions to copyright law must be obtained from the copyright holder.en_US
dc.subjectComputer scienceen_US
dc.titleEliminating incoherence from subjective estimates of chanceen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.type.materialTexten_US
thesis.degree.departmentComputer Scienceen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineEngineeringen_US
thesis.degree.grantorRice Universityen_US
thesis.degree.levelMastersen_US
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen_US
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