Heterogeneous Preferences and Optimal Release Timing in the U.S. Film Industry

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dc.contributor.advisorTang, Xun
dc.creatorCopeland, Nicholas Marhsall
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-17T15:01:15Z
dc.date.available2019-05-17T15:01:15Z
dc.date.created2018-05
dc.date.issued2018-04-12
dc.date.submittedMay 2018
dc.date.updated2019-05-17T15:01:15Z
dc.description.abstractI develop and estimate a discrete choice structural model of demand to address the unique challenges of the domestic film industry. Then, using the model estimates, I setup the release date scheduling problem and solve for the optimal timing of release dates. The industry is marked by highly seasonal demand fluctuations and features products with clearly defined characteristics and short periods of viability. The model described herein, which is built upon the framework of BLP (1995), accounts for utility decay over time, seasonal effects, and heterogeneous consumer preferences over genre, MPAA rating, and critic reviews. I approximate the optimal instruments in a nonlinear setting, enabling the identification and precise estimation of the random coefficient parameters. These parameters shape characteristic-driven substitution patterns, a feature of the market largely ignored in past work. Using the model estimates, I identify the most over- and under-used markets in the industry by simulating the potential revenue of a hypothetical film across potential release dates. I find that the Christmas holiday season and the early portion of the year are often underutilized, while the fall markets are generally oversaturated. The paper concludes by constructing the film studios' release date scheduling problem and solving the inherent integer-programming problem. I find a restructured release schedule that increases revenue by 17% at the firm level.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationCopeland, Nicholas Marhsall. "Heterogeneous Preferences and Optimal Release Timing in the U.S. Film Industry." (2018) Diss., Rice University. <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/1911/105737">https://hdl.handle.net/1911/105737</a>.
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/105737
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rightsCopyright is held by the author, unless otherwise indicated. Permission to reuse, publish, or reproduce the work beyond the bounds of fair use or other exemptions to copyright law must be obtained from the copyright holder.
dc.subjectHeterogeneous Preferences
dc.subjectRandom Coefficients
dc.subjectDemand Estimation
dc.subjectFilm
dc.subjectFilm Industry
dc.subjectMovies
dc.subjectOptimal Instruments
dc.titleHeterogeneous Preferences and Optimal Release Timing in the U.S. Film Industry
dc.typeThesis
dc.type.materialText
thesis.degree.departmentEconomics
thesis.degree.disciplineSocial Sciences
thesis.degree.grantorRice University
thesis.degree.levelDoctoral
thesis.degree.nameDoctor of Philosophy
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