Heterogeneous Preferences and Optimal Release Timing in the U.S. Film Industry

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dc.contributor.advisorTang, Xunen_US
dc.creatorCopeland, Nicholas Marhsallen_US
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-17T15:01:15Zen_US
dc.date.available2019-05-17T15:01:15Zen_US
dc.date.created2018-05en_US
dc.date.issued2018-04-12en_US
dc.date.submittedMay 2018en_US
dc.date.updated2019-05-17T15:01:15Zen_US
dc.description.abstractI develop and estimate a discrete choice structural model of demand to address the unique challenges of the domestic film industry. Then, using the model estimates, I setup the release date scheduling problem and solve for the optimal timing of release dates. The industry is marked by highly seasonal demand fluctuations and features products with clearly defined characteristics and short periods of viability. The model described herein, which is built upon the framework of BLP (1995), accounts for utility decay over time, seasonal effects, and heterogeneous consumer preferences over genre, MPAA rating, and critic reviews. I approximate the optimal instruments in a nonlinear setting, enabling the identification and precise estimation of the random coefficient parameters. These parameters shape characteristic-driven substitution patterns, a feature of the market largely ignored in past work. Using the model estimates, I identify the most over- and under-used markets in the industry by simulating the potential revenue of a hypothetical film across potential release dates. I find that the Christmas holiday season and the early portion of the year are often underutilized, while the fall markets are generally oversaturated. The paper concludes by constructing the film studios' release date scheduling problem and solving the inherent integer-programming problem. I find a restructured release schedule that increases revenue by 17% at the firm level.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.identifier.citationCopeland, Nicholas Marhsall. "Heterogeneous Preferences and Optimal Release Timing in the U.S. Film Industry." (2018) Diss., Rice University. <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/1911/105737">https://hdl.handle.net/1911/105737</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/105737en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.rightsCopyright is held by the author, unless otherwise indicated. Permission to reuse, publish, or reproduce the work beyond the bounds of fair use or other exemptions to copyright law must be obtained from the copyright holder.en_US
dc.subjectHeterogeneous Preferencesen_US
dc.subjectRandom Coefficientsen_US
dc.subjectDemand Estimationen_US
dc.subjectFilmen_US
dc.subjectFilm Industryen_US
dc.subjectMoviesen_US
dc.subjectOptimal Instrumentsen_US
dc.titleHeterogeneous Preferences and Optimal Release Timing in the U.S. Film Industryen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.type.materialTexten_US
thesis.degree.departmentEconomicsen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineSocial Sciencesen_US
thesis.degree.grantorRice Universityen_US
thesis.degree.levelDoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.nameDoctor of Philosophyen_US
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