Lung carcinogenesis modeling: Resampling and simulation approach to model fitting, validation, and prediction

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dc.contributor.advisorKimmel, Mareken_US
dc.creatorFoy, Millenniaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-07-25T02:05:28Zen_US
dc.date.available2011-07-25T02:05:28Zen_US
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.description.abstractBecause of serious health implications, lung cancer is the leading cancer killer for both men and women. It is well known that smoking is the major risk factor for lung cancer. I propose to use a two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model to evaluate the effects of smoking on initiation and promotion of lung carcinogenesis. The TSCE model is traditionally fit to prospective cohort data. A new method has been developed that allows reconstruction of cohort data from the combination of risk factor data from a case-control study, and tabled incidence/mortality rate data. A simulation study of the method shows that it is accurate in estimating the parameters of the TSCE model. The method is then applied to fit a TSCE model based on smoking history. The fitted model is then validated in two ways. First the model is used to predict lung cancer deaths in the non-asbestos exposed control arm of the CARET study, where the model predicts 366.8 lung cancer deaths while there were 364 observed. Second, the model is used to simulate LC mortality in the US population and reasonably reproduced observed US mortality rates. The model is also applied to a study of CT screening for lung cancer. The study is a single arm CT screening study lacking a control arm for comparison. The model is used to simulate LC mortality in the absence of screening to serve as a surrogate control arm for comparison. Based on the model there is a statistically significant mortality reduction of 36% due to CT screening.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.identifier.callnoTHESIS STAT. 2010 FOYen_US
dc.identifier.citationFoy, Millennia. "Lung carcinogenesis modeling: Resampling and simulation approach to model fitting, validation, and prediction." (2010) Diss., Rice University. <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/1911/62030">https://hdl.handle.net/1911/62030</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/62030en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.rightsCopyright is held by the author, unless otherwise indicated. Permission to reuse, publish, or reproduce the work beyond the bounds of fair use or other exemptions to copyright law must be obtained from the copyright holder.en_US
dc.subjectStatisticsen_US
dc.subjectHealth sciencesen_US
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_US
dc.titleLung carcinogenesis modeling: Resampling and simulation approach to model fitting, validation, and predictionen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.type.materialTexten_US
thesis.degree.departmentStatisticsen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineEngineeringen_US
thesis.degree.grantorRice Universityen_US
thesis.degree.levelDoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.nameDoctor of Philosophyen_US
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