Browsing by Author "Stoll, Richard J."

Now showing 1 - 20 of 48
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    Adaptation, State Survival and System Endurance: A Simulation Study
    (Sage, 1990) Cusack, Thomas R.; Stoll, Richard J.
    This paper reports on a study using the EARTH (Exploring Alternative Realpolitik Theses) Simulation Model. The model is an abstract representation of an anarchic multistate system wherein states employ Realists' principles in guiding their choices on questions dealing with war and peace. The present study examines the systemic and state level consequences that arise in the presence or absence of the ability of states to adapt or change the fundamental decision rules that they employ.
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    Aerial Strategies and their Effect on Conflict Characteristics
    (2012-09-05) Martinez, Carla; Stoll, Richard J.; Morgan, T. Clifton; Leeds, Ashley; Subramanian, Devika
    This project asks the question of how different aerial strategies can affect the characteristics of aerial campaigns in conflict. It begins by developing a new categorization of aerial strategies that distinguishes aerial strategies by how targeted thy are. Data is collected on the type of strategies that were used in aerial campaigns from 1914 to 2003. A preliminary analysis of aerial strategy choice is conducted, studying the effect of military doctrines on strategy choice. The project also takes into consideration the role that ground forces, both those of the state carrying out the aerial attack and of its opponent, will play in determining the effect of aerial strategies on campaign duration and outcome.
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    An analysis of the effects of Soviet interventions on U.N. roll call voting
    (1990) Kress, Ashley Stainback; Stoll, Richard J.
    The purpose of this thesis is to discover the effects of Soviet interventions on overall voting patterns in the General Assembly of the United Nations. Specifically, it endeavors to study how U.N. voting changed after the Soviet invasions into Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Afghanistan in 1979. The hypotheses of this study state that violations of the norm of national self-determination by the USSR (i.e. the interventions) will lead to less cordial relations between the Soviet Union and other nations. Countries classified as neutral during the periods prior to each invasion as well as members of the non-aligned movement are separated from the other nations of the U.N. for special study. Regression analysis of General Assembly Roll Call data shows that only in the case of Hungary did any change in voting behavior take place.
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    The Arms Acquisition Process : The Effect of Internal and External Constraints on Arms Race Dynamics
    (Sage, 2000-10) Bolks, Sean; Stoll, Richard J.
    A new approach to address oversights in the traditional arms race literature is presented. It involves five factors that have not been previously applied to arms races. The focus of military capability is not expenditures but weapons counts. The entire set of major powers is modeled as a system. A factor controlling for the level of environmental threat faced by each state is included. Domestic factors are included in the decision-making calculus of the state. It is assumed that states use simple decision rules rather than a complex set of calculations to make their decisions. The authors usc this approach to test a system of equations that model the number of capital ships of the major powers from 1860 to 1986 in different time periods. Results indicate that the overall approach has a good deal of validity.
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    Arms racing and conflict in the Third World: 1970-2000
    (2010) Marin, Victor Claudio; Stoll, Richard J.
    In this dissertation I investigate the relationship between arms races and the probability of militarized conflict onset. The research question is critically important on at least two fronts: first, many policy makers and scholars alike believe ramping up military forces is the best way to deter military conflict (the peace through strength argument) while others suggest arms races do nothing but lead states towards militarized conflict. Second, this dissertation fills a research gap present since the end of the Cold War since research on arms races by the scientific community of conflict scholars has slowed dramatically since the end of the Cold War and findings remain inconclusive. The Steps to War research program (Vasquez, 1993; Senese and Vasquez, 2008), however, suggests arms races are one of the central provocateurs of militarized conflict and warfare between states. Using this theoretical approach I frame arms races as dangerous events in the global arena and provide a clear theoretical account of the international system, the incentives for arming, and the linkage between arms racing and international conflict. The central theoretical argument suggests arms races lead states into conflict with one another. I test my expectations through a regional analysis of minor powers from three geographic areas: Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East over the period 1970-2000. In an important departure from the majority of previous quantitative arms race and conflict studies I utilize the actual weapons stockpiles of states (as opposed to defense expenditure data) as the primary measure of an arms race. The empirical results not only shed insight into the likelihood observing international conflict when preceded by arms racing but also indicate whether certain types of arms racing --- air as opposed to sea or ground racing, for example---may be more likely to develop into conflict than other forms.
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    Bloc Concentration and the Balance of Power: The European Major Powers, 1824-1914
    (Sage, 1984-03) Stoll, Richard J.
    This article argues that a better trace of the operation of a balance of power system can be obtained if two dimensions, alliances and capabilities, are combined into a single measure of bloc concentration. After reviewing the basic features of a balance of power system to show why this is the case, such an index is constructed. Several patterns of bloc concentration consistent with the operation of a balance of power system are derived and examined, using data for the European major powers from 1824 through 1914, and for all the major powers from 1919 through 1965. The findings are consistent with the existence of a balance of power system in the earlier era and with a form of balancing behavior in the post-World War I era.
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    Citizen-Officers: The Union and Confederate Volunteer Junior Officer Corps in the American Civil War, 1861-1865
    (2012-09-05) Bledsoe, Andrew; Boles, John B.; Gruber, Ira D.; Stoll, Richard J.; Parrish, Michael
    This dissertation engages the historiography of American citizenship and identity, republican traditions in American life and thought, and explores the evolution of military leadership in American society during the American Civil War. The nature, experiences and evolution of citizen-soldiers and citizen-officers, both Union and Confederate, reveal that the sentimental, often romantic expectations and ideologies forged in the American Revolution and modified during the antebellum era were recast, adapted, and modified under the extreme pressures of four years of conflict. Civil War citizen-officers experienced extreme pressures to emulate the professional officers of the regular army and to accommodate the ideological expectations of the independent, civic-minded volunteers they led. These junior leaders arrived at creative, often ingenious solutions to overcome the unique leadership challenges posed by the tension between antebellum democratic values and the demands of military necessity. Though the nature and identity of the officers in both armies evolved over time, the ideological foundations that informed Civil War Americans’ conceptions of military service persisted throughout the conflict. The key to the persistence of the citizen-soldier ethos and citizen-officer image during and after the Civil War era lies in the considerable power of antebellum Americans’ shared but malleable republican tradition. By focusing on the experience of volunteer company-grade officers in the Civil War era, we discover how the ordeal of the Civil War forced Americans to reevaluate and reconcile the role of the individual in this arrangement, both elevating and de-emphasizing the centrality of the citizen-soldier to the evolving narrative of American identity, citizenship, and leadership.
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    Civil Engineering : Does a Realist World Influence the Onset of Civil Wars?
    (Sage, 2010) Stoll, Richard J.
    Recently, the study of civil wars has attracted more and more attention from scholars of international relations. Using a computer simulation called EARTH (Exploring Alternative Realpolitik THeses) that not only simulates a realist world, but also includes civil wars, the author explores what aspects of a realist world are associated with the onset of civil war. Although features of a realist world are not the dominate factors in accounting for civil wars, the loss of territory that accompanies losing interstate wars does influence the chances of states undergoing civil war.
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    Civil Reality? Simulation Experiments on the Impact of Civil War in a Realist World
    (Taylor & Francis, 2005) Stoll, Richard J.
    The most widely used theoretical framework in international relations is realism. Realism takes many forms, and there have been hundreds of writings on the topic. In the United States, the two most popular exemplars of realism are Morgenthau (Morgenthau & Thompson, 1985; original 1948) and Waltz (1979). There is no systematic attempt to incorporate civil wars into the realist framework. In this paper, we use a computer simulation to explore the impact of a state's civil war experience on its interstate war experience. The results suggest that a state's civil war experience can have an impact on its interstate war experience.
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    Collective Security and State Survival in the Interstate System
    (Wiley, 1994-03) Cusack, Thomas R.; Stoll, Richard J.
    For hundreds of years realists have debated idealists about the nature of the interstate system and the most effective means to promote the endurance of the system and the survival of individual states. This paper uses a computer simulation called EARTH (Exploring Alternative Realpolitik Theses) to explore the viability of collective security in a realist world. The results of our experiments indicate that the practice of collective security promotes the endurance of the entire system. Our results also show that states that practice collective security principles are more likely to survive in a realist world than states that operate according to realist principles
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    Cultural Security Perceptions in Northeast Asia and Their Impact on Energy Cooperation
    (2000) al-Jibury, Falah; Jaffe, Amy Myers; Marcus, George; Barnes, Joe; Garrett, Banning; Moon, Katherine H.S.; Berger, Thomas; Ikenberry, G. John; Stoll, Richard J.; Cha, Victor; Lewis, Steven W.; von der Mehden, Fred R.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy
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    Dynamic reciprocity in negotiations: The Sino-British talks on Hong Kong
    (1995) Dougherty, Sean Michael; Stoll, Richard J.
    Building on earlier reciprocity research in arms control negotiations by Stoll and McAndrew (1986) and Druckman and Harris (1990), this study evaluates various models of cooperative and inverse reciprocity in a independent environment: the Sino-British negotiations regarding the future of Hong Kong. Coding of concessions and retractions is based on a wide range of news and government sources using methods developed by Jensen (1988). Both the trend model and the comparative reciprocity model are supported, albeit inconsistently. Statistical analysis of model predictions suggests the mixed use of cooperative and inverse strategies. A combined "hybrid" model nets support comparable to the trend and comparative models. While evidence of reciprocity is demonstrated in this study, to better understand the dynamics of parties' interactions, more studies of negotiation behavior need to be conducted which can systematically incorporate dominant aggregate contextual variables.
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    Essays on Fair Division and Social Choice
    (2013-12-04) Ertemel, Sinan; Moulin, Herve; Bogomolnaia, Anna; Stoll, Richard J.
    In my dissertation, I studied Social Choice and Fair Division problems under uncertainty. In the first chapter, I defined welfare egalitarianism in the form of certainty equivalence where the individuals are endowed with state contingent consumption bundles and provided an axiomatic characterization of this ordering by efficiency, equity and monotonicity axioms. In the second chapter, I defined two proportional rules on the rationing problem with state contingent claims and gave the characterization of those two rules by No Advantageous Reallocation. And in the last chapter, I consider a class of resolute social choice correspondences and characterize the strong Nash equilibrium outcomes of their voting games in terms of a generalization of the Condorcet principle.
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    Examining Conflict Escalation Within the Civilizations Context
    (Sage, 2003) Bolks, Sean; Stoll, Richard J.
    Samuel Huntington's article and book on the clash of civilizations has created a great deal of controversy and interest. The focus of this is in his assertion that in the post-Cold War era, there will be significant conflict between states from Western civilization and states from Islamic civilization. This assertion has been the subject of a number of systematic empirical studies (Henderson, 1997, 1998; Henderson and Tucker, 2001; Russett, Oneal and Cox, 2000; Chiozza, 2002). These studies share two things in common. First, they all use the dyad year as the case and predict to the onset of conflict. Second, none found any support for Huntington's thesis. In our paper, we ask a different question: Given the engagement of a dyad in militarized interstate dispute (MIDs), is there a relationship between the civilizational status of the dyad and the chances of the dispute escalating to war? Using the MID data, we conduct a two-stage estimation to identify the mixed civilization effect on the probability of dispute and then on the probability of the escalation to war. In the pre-Cold war era, there is a greater probability for mixed civilization dyads and for Islamic-Western dyads to engage in disputes and for these disputes to escalate to war. These findings contradict Huntingtonﾒs argument that the clash of civilization thesis applies only to the post-Cold War era. The post-Cold War era does not offer complete empirical support Huntingtonﾒs expectations either. Mixed civilization dyads do not appear to be as likely to engage in dispute or escalate to war. Islamic-Western dyads do appear to be more apt to engage in dispute during this period, but not to escalate.
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    Explaining the commercial peace: Costs, information, and signaling
    (2006) Sandoval-Bustos, Rosa E.; Stoll, Richard J.
    Over the last several years, dozens of quantitative studies have analyzed the relationship between economic interdependence and conflict. Most studies show that it decreases the likelihood of war. This thesis delves more deeply into why the relationship holds. The dissertation compares what three different explanations say about the relationship between interdependence and conflict. Each of the explanations for the liberal peace flows from a general model of international conflict that sees war as a bargaining failure. As such, each focuses on the variables that determine when a war can occur in such models: costs of war or uncertainty. The first explanation argues that interdependence decreases conflict because states want to avoid costs associated with the disruption of trade if they fight a war. The second and third explanations contend that trade may affect the likelihood of conflict because trading states have less uncertainty about each other. There are two ways that states can get information regarding one another's policy, power, and preferences. First, trading states have incentives to learn more about their partners' political systems, and they do so through frequent interactions between high officials and by the diplomatic presence they have in other countries. Second, interdependent states can signal their resolve through costly signals, such as economic sanctions. The thesis makes explicit the theoretical argument of each explanation and tests hypotheses derived from the theories. These hypotheses go beyond the simple association of trade and peace to examine additional implications of the costs and information arguments, thus helping to adjudicate between them. The findings support the idea that economic interdependence increases the range of peaceful bargains that states prefer to an outcome decided by conflict if they have a reasonable level of interaction. But crucially, interdependent states have more information about their trading partners, and this facilitates conflict resolution. Having information about the other state's reservation point allows states to make demands the other side would concede. Volumes of trade are important to facilitate conflict resolution, but also the information states can gather from their trading partners.
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    The Fiscal Impact of the U. S. Military Assistance Program, 1967-1976
    (University of Utah, 1985-03) Stein, Robert M.; Ishimatsu, Mark; Stoll, Richard J.
    The study of U.S. arms transfers and their impact on the fiscal decisions of aid recipients has been the subject of various interpretations and competing explanations. Absent in this literature has been a systematic testing of propositions derived from a general theory of aid impacts. A larger and somewhat related body of research has examined the political (Chaudhuri 1972; Hughes 1967; Gutteridge 1967) and general economic effects of domestic military spending (Deger and Smith 1983; Smith 1977, 1980; Benoit 1978; Kennedy 1974; Whynes 1979). These studies, however, have not examined the fiscal impact of foreign military assistance. To date only a few researchers have studied this issue in any systematic fashion (McGuire 1979, 1982; Wolf 1971). In this study we seek to fill this gap by applying grant economics theory (Pigou 1932; Oates 1972) to study the fiscal impact of U.S. military arms transfers on foreign nations. Drawing on the domestic aid literature (Oates 1972; Gramlich 1972), we identify a set of propositions concerning the expenditure decisions of domestic aid recipients, and test these propositions against the fiscal behavior of Military Assistance Program (MAP) recipients between 1967-1976. In addition to the substantive import of this question and its bearing on the implementation of U.S. foreign policy, this research provides a unique opportunity to test the applicability of domestic aid theory to the study of foreign aid policy.
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    Foreign aid and internal violence in Central America and the Caribbean
    (1980) Herron, Linda Aldredge; Stoll, Richard J.; Dix, Robert H.; Sanders, Elizabeth
    This study reports the relationship between the giving of United States foreign aid and political stability in eight nations bordering on the Caribbean Sea. These nations include six independent countries in Central America and the two nations on the island of Hispaniola. Events data from these nations were gathered from regional news sources; economic data were gathered from United Nations sources; and U.S. foreign aid figures were taken from government sources. Five factors are condensed from the events data to represent the independent variables and are visualized as a cycle of conflict which grows from less to more intense and violent. The independent variable is U.S. foreign aid. Economic growth and Repression are designated as intermediate variables. Political stability is the dependent variable. The primary relationship studies is between foreign aid and the more intense levels of conflict to study aid's effect on the incidence of political turbulence in these eight nations. This study adopts Schattschneider's idea that conflict grows as the audience to a struggle becomes involved in the fight. Doran outlines five levels of conflict, describing a progression of violence from less involved at the local level to the level of international conflict with wide consequences. The use of time series data allows the development of a model to show the progression of conflict from one level to the next. U.S. foreign aid was given to the nations included in this study for a variety of reasons, but all these reasons have a common goal: the promotion of internal domestic stability in this region. The present research indicates that aid has neither been an unqualified success nor a dismal failure in achieving this goal. U.S. foreign aid remains one of many tools that American policy-makers use to influence international relationships.
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    Four Way Street? Saudi Arabia's Behavior among the Superpowers, 1966-1999
    (2004) Subramanian, Devika; Stoll, Richard J.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy
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    Four Way Street? Saudi Arabia's Behavior Among the Superpowers, 1996-1999
    (2004) Stoll, Richard J.; Subramanian, Devika; National Science Foundation; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy