Browsing by Author "Raun, Loren H."

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    A Distributed Hydrologic Model of The Woodlands, TX: Modeling Hydrologic Effects of Low Impact Development
    (2012-09-05) Doubleday, George; Bedient, Philip B.; Li, Qilin; Raun, Loren H.
    This thesis utilizes a distributed hydrologic model to predict hydrologic effects of Low Impact Development (LID), and also analyzes runoff from small sub-areas within the watershed. City planners and developers rely on accurate hydrologic models, which enable them to design flood-proof developments and effectively mitigate flooding downstream. Common hydrologic models use a lumped approach, which averages the physical characteristics of basins for model calculations, limiting their ability to estimate runoff within the basin. In contrast, distributed hydrologic models, which divide the watershed into a grid system, can be used to predict runoff at any location within the watershed. The fully distributed hydrologic model, VfloTM, is used to model stormwater runoff in The Woodlands, TX watershed, and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the master planned community. This thesis also suggests that a calibrated VfloTM model can accurately predict stormwater runoff from small sub-areas within a watershed.
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    Analysis and Prediction of Rainfall and Storm Surge Interactions in the Clear Creek Watershed using Unsteady-State HEC-RAS Hydraulic Modeling
    (2012-09-05) Winter, Heather; Bedient, Philip B.; Griffin, Robert J.; Raun, Loren H.
    This study presents an unsteady-state hydraulic model analysis of hurricane storm surge and rainfall-runoff interactions in the Clear Creek Watershed, a basin draining into Galveston Bay and vulnerable to flooding from both intense local rainfalls and storm surge. Storm surge and rainfall-runoff have historically been modeled separately, and thus the linkage and interactions between the two during a hurricane are not completely understood. This study simulates the two processes simultaneously by using storm surge stage hydrographs as boundary conditions in the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s – River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model. Storm surge hydrographs for a severe hurricane were generated in the Advanced Circulation Model for Oceanic, Coastal, and Estuarine Waters (ADCIRC) model to predict the flooding that could be caused by a worst-case scenario. Using this scenario, zones have been identified to represent areas in the Clear Creek Watershed vulnerable to flooding from storm surge, rainfall, or both.
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    City-Specific Air Quality Warnings for Improved Asthma Self-Management
    (Elsevier, 2019) Raun, Loren H.; Ensor, Katherine B.; Pederson, John E.; Campos, Laura A.; Persse, David E.
    INTRODUCTION: This study presents a framework for identifying "high-risk" days for asthma attacks associated with elevated concentrations of criteria pollutants using local information to warn citizens on days when the concentrations differ from Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality Index (AQI) warnings. Studies that consider the unique mixture of pollutants and the health data specific to a city provide additional information for asthma self-management. This framework is applied to air pollution and asthma data to identify supplemental warning days in Houston, Texas. METHODS: A four-step framework was established to identify days with pollutant levels that pose meaningful increased risk for asthma attacks compared with baseline. Historical associations between 18,542 ambulance-treated asthma attacks and air pollutant concentrations in Houston, Texas (2004-2016; analyzed in 2018), were analyzed using a case-crossover study design with conditional logistic regression. Days with historically high associations between pollution and asthma attacks were identified as supplemental warning days. RESULTS: Days with 8-hour maximum ozone >66.6 parts per billion for the 3 previous days and same-day 24-hour nitrogen dioxide >19.3 parts per billion pose an RR of 15% above baseline; concentrations above these levels pose an increased risk of 15% (RR=1.15, 95% CI=1.14, 1.16) and 30% (RR=1.30, 95% CI=1.29, 1.32), respectively. These warnings add an additional 12% days per year over the AQI warnings. CONCLUSIONS: Houston uses this framework to identify supplemental air quality warnings to improve asthma self-management. Supplemental days reflect risk lower than the National Ambient Air Quality Standards and consecutive poor air quality days, differing from the AQI.
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    Comparison of estimates of airmass aging using particle and other measurements near Fort Worth, TX
    (2013-06-05) Karakurt Cevik, Basak; Griffin, Robert J.; Cohan, Daniel S.; Raun, Loren H.
    The composition, concentration, and size of submicron aerosols were measured with a time resolution of five minutes by an Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) at a rural location northwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth, TX, area for the month of June 2011. A TSI, Inc., Model AE51 aethalometer using an optical absorption technique also was deployed to measure black carbon (BC) concentrations. The total measured PM1 mass concentration ranged between 1.0 µg/m3 and 17.1 µg/m3, with a mean and standard deviation of 4.6± 2.7 µg/m3. Significant variability is observed in the time series of total PM1 and of all four HR-ToF-AMS species, particularly between June 21 and 25. The average aerosol composition was dominated by organic matter (52.1 ± 14.8%) and sulfate (28.8 ± 11.8%). Organic aerosol concentrations were positively correlated with tracers of combustion carbon monoxide (CO) and BC, the coefficients of determination were r2=064 and r2=0.48, respectively. Because of the large influence of organics on total aerosol concentration, organic data were analyzed in the context of ΔOA/ΔCO, which typically is used to investigate the relative importance of secondary organic aerosol. The average ∆OA/∆CO for the data used was 64.0 ± 26.9 µg/ (m3 ppmv), which is typical of an aged air mass. Other metrics of age include the ratio of OOAI (more oxidized) to total oxidized organic aerosol (OOA), the ratio of sulfate to total sulfur, the ratio of its oxidation products to isoprene, and the ratio of nitrogen oxides to total reactive nitrogen. All metrics point to aged air masses, but variations in these age matrices, particularly during one period of enhanced ΔOA/ΔCO, help elucidate the contributions of various precursors and processes to organic aerosols at the site.
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    Long-Term Performance of Enhanced Anaerobic Bioremediation and the Occurrence of Sustained Treatment at Chlorinated Solvent Sites
    (2013-09-16) Burcham, Mike; Bedient, Philip B.; Tomson, Mason B.; Raun, Loren H.
    The objective of this research was to evaluate the long-term performance of enhanced anaerobic bioremediation (EAB) at chlorinated solvent sites and the occurrence of sustained treatment following EAB. A database of groundwater concentration versus time records was compiled for 25 sites with at least three years of post-treatment data. The median post-treatment monitoring period for these sites was 5.2 years, with a maximum of 11.7 years. Long-term performance was evaluated based on concentration changes from before treatment to the final year of post-treatment monitoring. Results indicate that the median concentration reduction for all 25 sites was approximately 80%, just under 1 order of magnitude. Sustained treatment, where concentrations remain suppressed after ceasing active treatment, was evaluated using a lines-of-evidence approach including analysis of rebound, statistical concentration trends after treatment, and decay rates from before and after treatment. Results indicate that sustained treatment is occurring at a majority of the sites.
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    Using community level strategies to reduce asthma attacks triggered by outdoor air pollution: a case crossover analysis
    (BioMed Central, 2014) Raun, Loren H.; Ensor, Katherine B.; Persse, David
    Evidence indicates that asthma attacks can be triggered by exposure to ambient air pollutants, however, detailed pollution information is missing from asthma action plans. Asthma is commonly associated with four criteria pollutants with standards derived by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Since multiple pollutants trigger attacks and risks depend upon city-specific mixtures of pollutants, there is lack of specific guidance to reduce exposure. Until multi-pollutant statistical modeling fully addresses this gap, some guidance on pollutant attack risk is required. This study examines the risks from exposure to the asthma-related pollutants in a large metropolitan city and defines the city-specific association between attacks and pollutant mixtures. Our goal is that city-specific pollution risks be incorporated into individual asthma action plans as additional guidance to prevent attacks. Case-crossover analysis and conditional logistic regression were used to measure the association between ozone, fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide pollution and 11,754 emergency medical service ambulance treated asthma attacks in Houston, Texas from 2004-2011. Both single and multi-pollutant models are presented. In Houston, ozone and nitrogen dioxide are important triggers (RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.09), (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.15) with 20 and 8 ppb increase in ozone and nitrogen dioxide, respectively, in a multi-pollutant model. Both pollutants are simultaneously high at certain times of the year. The risk attributed to these pollutants differs when they are considered together, especially as concentrations increase. Cumulative exposure for ozone (0-2 day lag) is of concern, whereas for nitrogen dioxide the concern is with single day exposure. Persons at highest risk are aged 46-66, African Americans, and males. Accounting for cumulative and concomitant outdoor pollutant exposure is important to effectively attribute risk for triggering of an asthma attack, especially as concentrations increase. Improved asthma action plans for Houston individuals should warn of these pollutants, their trends, correlation and cumulative effects. Our Houston based study identifies nitrogen dioxide levels and the three-day exposure to ozone to be of concern whereas current single pollutant based national standards do not.