Browsing by Author "Olcott, Martha Brill"
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Item Central Asia: Confronting Independence(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Olcott, Martha Brill; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem International Gas Trade in Central Asia: Turkmenistan, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Olcott, Martha Brill; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Russia's Regions and Energy Policy in East SiberiaOlcott, Martha Brill; Petrov, Nikolai; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyIn recent years, Russia’s enormous reserves of strategic natural resources have played a central role in the country’s economic rebirth and its reassertion of geopolitical influence. Much of these resources are concentrated in the vast and remote areas of the Russian territory, in regions significantly distant from Moscow. As a result, tensions exist between regional elites and the leaders in the Kremlin and the Russian White House over the question of who controls the development of these resources, particularly with regard to the highly profitable energy reserves. Since Vladimir Putin came to power, he has sought to assert central government control over regional development strategies in oil and gas-rich areas, as well as consolidating Russia’s energy industry by making regional and private firms subordinate to the state-owned corporations Gazprom and Rosneft. In East Siberia, where Putin is increasingly concerned with the prospect of the region ceding to Chinese control, he has sought various means to bring economic development, and particularly the development of energy resources, back under strong central authority. Power struggles between local authorities and elites in East Siberia and the federal government in Moscow have ensued, and the ongoing conflict between the two parties has had marked effects on resource development in the distant region. This paper discusses the recent political and economic events that frame the current situation in East Siberia, with a particular focus on the Irkutsk region, one of the key places in the federal government’s resource development strategies.Item Russia, Central Asia, and the Caspian: How Important is the Energy and Security Trade-Off?(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Olcott, Martha Brill; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyThe current financial crisis and sinking oil prices have left Russia in a precarious position with depleted currency funds. At the same time, relations between Russia and the West have become tense over the Georgian conflict and the Ukrainian natural gas crisis. Long-run implications of those events included increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity in Europe, increased likelihood of new pipeline routes that bypass Russia, and significantly decreased value of Russian oil companies. Given the reduced global demand for energy, Russia’s petro-state economy is projected to contract significantly this year. Major companies in the oil industry have debt issues, which will most likely curtail Russia’s oil production, despite Moscow’s decision to back several companies, because of the uncertainty of future investments in projects. The financial crisis has also lost Russia some prestige on the international stage. Russia is no longer in a position to boldly challenge the leadership of Saudi Arabia in the oil market. On the domestic front, the loss of income from the oil and natural gas sector poses problems for those currently in power in Russia, potentially weakening the Dmitry Medvedev-Vladimir Putin power tandem and their political system. Russia must now focus on restoring domestic social welfare or rebuilding its international presence. Whatever Russia’s choice, it will have a great impact on the energy security of the rest of the world.Item The Future of the Russian Oil IndustryJaffe, Amy Myers; Olcott, Martha Brill; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyThe fall in oil prices precipitated by the recent global financial crisis has made the fate of the Russian oil industry increasingly precarious, which in turn has made Russia’s economic and political future quite uncertain. Much of the perceived success of the Putin government has been a direct result of the high oil and gas prices in the early 2000s, from which Russia gleaned enormous windfall and trade profits. Now, with oil prices at their lowest levels in years and with the depletion of hard currency reserves, Russia’s economy is suffering. At the same time, Russia’s relationships in the international community, particularly with the US and EU, have become strained in part due to the 2008 conflicts with Ukraine over natural gas pricing that left much of Central Europe without heat during a record cold winter. The Russia-Georgia conflict also remains a significant point of contention. The potential costs of these political and economic difficulties include a greater likeliness for Europe to construct additional LNG terminals with alternative pipelines to bypass Russia and great declines in investor confidence in Russian industry. Under present conditions, lower oil prices and increasingly limited access to international credit markets will make it difficult for the Russian government to maintain current levels of oil production. This paper explores the possible political and economic consequences of various courses of action that Russia might take in addressing the crises at hand.Item Turkmenistan: Real Energy Giant or Eternal Potential?(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Olcott, Martha Brill; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Vladimir Putin and the Geopolitics of Oil(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy) Olcott, Martha Brill; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy