Computational Applied Mathematics and Operations Research

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Browsing Computational Applied Mathematics and Operations Research by Author "Abbas, Amr"

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    Extubation Failure in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients: Risk Factors and Impact on In-Hospital Mortality
    (Sage, 2021) Ionescu, Filip; Zimmer, Markie S.; Petrescu, Ioana; Castillo, Edward; Bozyk, Paul; Abbas, Amr; Abplanalp, Lauren; Dogra, Sanjay; Nair, Girish B.
    Purpose:We sought to identify clinical factors that predict extubation failure (reintubation) and its prognostic implications in critically ill COVID-19 patients.Materials and Methods:Retrospective, multi-center cohort study of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Multivariate competing risk models were employed to explore the rate of reintubation and its determining factors.Results:Two hundred eighty-one extubated patients were included (mean age, 61.0 years [±13.9]; 54.8% male). Reintubation occurred in 93 (33.1%). In multivariate analysis accounting for death, reintubation risk increased with age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04 per 1-year increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02 -1.06), vasopressors (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.04-3.60), renal replacement (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.22-3.29), maximum PEEP (HR 1.07 per 1-unit increase, 95% CI 1.02 -1.12), paralytics (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.08-2.25) and requiring more than nasal cannula immediately post-extubation (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.37-3.50). Reintubation was associated with higher mortality (36.6% vs 2.1%; P < 0.0001) and risk of inpatient death after adjusting for multiple factors (HR 23.2, 95% CI 6.45-83.33). Prone ventilation, corticosteroids, anticoagulation, remdesivir and tocilizumab did not impact the risk of reintubation or death.Conclusions:Up to 1 in 3 critically ill COVID-19 patients required reintubation. Older age, paralytics, high PEEP, need for greater respiratory support following extubation and non-pulmonary organ failure predicted reintubation. Extubation failure strongly predicted adverse outcomes.