Green, Russell A.2016-10-172016-10-17Green, Russell A.. "Structural Change Forecasts for India: How Big of a Bang Can a Big Bang Have?." (2015) James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy: <a href="http://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/tructural-change-forecasts-india-how-big-bang-can-big-bang-have/">http://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/tructural-change-forecasts-india-how-big-bang-can-big-bang-have/</a>.https://hdl.handle.net/1911/91922India’s political environment exhibits a new determination to “transform India into a global manufacturing hub,” and in the process raise manufacturing to 25% of GDP and create 100 million new manufacturing jobs. This would entail a structural change comparable to that witnessed by several East Asian countries beginning in the 1960s. The study projects a formal-sector manufacturing boom out 20 years at the sectoral level, assuming India can make the necessary reforms to initiate such a boom. Projection parameters are carefully constructed based on Indian and East Asian historical experience. The projections break out the key growth areas of formal-sector manufacturing and modern services to capture their unique characteristics. The results show large positive gains to aggregate output and employment from initiating an East Asian-style manufacturing boom in India. Reflective of the small size of formal-sector manufacturing employment currently, the government’s specific employment goals appear unattainable in the next 20 years.structural changeIndiaeconomic growthproductivityemploymentAsian miracleWorking paper