Browsing by Author "Medlock, Kenneth B. III"
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Item A Global Model of Natural Gas Markets: Some Case Results(2004) Hartley, Peter R.; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Nesbitt, Jill; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem A Model of the Operation and Development of a National Oil Company(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2007) Hartley, Peter R.; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem The Advanced Carbon Economy: A Sustainable Hydrogen Pathway(2021) Meidl, Rachel A.; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Assessing Shale Producers’ Ability to Scale-up Activity(2017) Collins, Gabriel; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem BCarbon: A New Soil Carbon Storage Standard(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2020) Baker Institute Soil Carbon Working Group (SCWG); Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Blackburn, Jim; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Carbon Capture in Texas: Comparative Advantage in a Low-Carbon Portfolio(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2020) Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Miller, Keily; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Cheap Money, Geopolitics and Supernormal Backwardation of the WTI Forward Curve(IAEE, 2023) El-Gamal, Mahmoud A.; Jaffe, Amy M.; Medlock, Kenneth B. IIIFinancial speculators frequently trade in the most liquid short-tenor contracts. We study repeating patterns of sharply steepening slopes in the WTI forward curve to investigate whether, after controlling for macroeconomic variables, physical market fundamentals, and basic arbitrage, calendar spread behavior is partly explained by speculation related to assessed geopolitical risk. We estimate WTI forward curve backwardation using the slope component from the parsimonious Dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor model, and then regress the resulting time series on a variety of economic, financial, and geopolitical variables. Results show that geopolitical risk in juxtaposition with low interest rates explains a significant percentage of the slope variation from 2011 to 2021. We then investigate whether there is evidence to support the common narrative that speculators buy the geopolitical threat and sell the event. We find confirmation of the hypothesis. We further study the dynamic effects of interest rate and geopolitical risk on speculative activity using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression analysis. Impulse response functions from the latter indicate that independent shocks related to geopolitical threat result in heightened supernormal backwardation for a month or more. We recommend changing margin requirements in WTI futures markets in light of these findings to disincentivize this speculative behavior.Item Climate Policy and Energy Security: Two Sides of the Same Coin?(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2008) Hartley, Peter R.; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Climate Policy in 2021: An Opportunity for Bipartisan Action(2021) Krane, Jim; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Finley, Mark; Maher, Michael D.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Comparison of Vehicle Fuel and CO2 Footprints by Technology Type(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2012) Cigerli, Burcu; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem The Composition and Growth of Energy Demand in China(1999) Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Soligo, Ronald; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Confronting Climate Change: Policies and Opportunities(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2016) Buono, Regina M.; Hung, Elsie; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem COVID-19 and the Value of Safe Transport(2021) Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Loch-Temzelides, Ted P.; Hung, Shih Yu (Elsie); James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyWe investigate the connection between the choice of transportation mode used by commuters and the probability of COVID-19 transmission. This interplay might influence the choice of transportation means for years to come. We present data on commuting, socioeconomic factors, and COVID-19 disease incidence for several US metropolitan areas. The data highlights important connections between population density and mobility, public transportation use, race, and increased likelihood of transmission. We use a transportation model to highlight the effect of uncertainty about transmission on the commuters’ choice of transportation means. Using multiple estimation techniques, we found strong evidence that public transit ridership in several US metro areas has been considerably impacted by COVID-19 and by the policy responses to the pandemic. Concerns about disease transmission had a negative effect on ridership, which is over and above the adverse effect from the observed reduction in employment. The COVID-19 effect is likely to reduce the demand for public transport in favor of lower density alternatives. This change relative to the status quo will have implications for fuel use, congestion, accident frequency, and air quality. More vulnerable communities might be disproportionally affected as a result. We point to the need for additional studies to further quantify these effects and to assist policy in planning for the post-COVID-19 transportation future.Item Electricity and a Changing Climate(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2019) Medlock, Kenneth B. III; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Electricity Reform and Retail Pricing in Texas(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2017) Hartley, Peter R.; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Jankovska, Olivera; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyElectricity market reforms have pursued two main goals, both aimed at increasing economic efficiency. The first is to make prices more reflective of costs so that consumers can make more efficient decisions about where and when to consume electricity. The second goal is to ensure that suppliers minimize the costs of supply. How successful has electricity market reform in Texas been with regard to achieving these goals? We focus on one aspect of this overall set of desired outcomes, namely whether movements in retail prices reflect wholesale market prices and whether reform has delivered cost reductions in the delivery of energy services by retailers. We find clear evidence that retail prices in competitive market areas better reflect wholesale prices and have moved favorably for consumers relative to wholesale prices. The same is not necessarily true for consumers in non-competitive market areas. This suggests that competitive retail markets have delivered cost reductions consistent with electricity service providers reducing their marginal costs. The effort that Texas undertook over a decade ago to introduce competition into the retail electricity supply thus appears to be yielding the benefits to consumers that were intended in competitive areas. Consumers in less competitive areas do not appear to have benefited as much.Item Electricity Sector Demand for Natural Gas in the United States(2007) Hartley, Peter R.; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Rosthal, Jennifer; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States(2017) Agerton, Mark; Hartley, Peter R.; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Loch-Temzelides, Ted P.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States(James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, 2014) Agerton, Mark; Hartley, Peter R.; Medlock, Kenneth B. III; Loch-Temzelides, Ted P.; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyTechnological progress in the exploration and production of oil and gas during the 2000s has led to a boom in upstream investment and has increased the domestic supply of fossil fuels. It is unknown, however, how many jobs this boom has created. We use time-series methods at the national level and dynamic panel methods at the state level to understand how the increase in exploration and production activity has impacted employment. We find robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling for oil and gas as captured by rig counts do, in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest impact is contemporaneous, though months later in the year also experience statistically and economically meaningful growth. Once dynamic effects are accounted for, we estimate that an additional rig count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger.Item Energy and Natural Gas in Northeast Asia: Options for the Future(2004) Medlock, Kenneth B. III; James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyItem Energy Dialogues Summary(2021) Medlock, Kenneth B. III; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy